Anyone who is into music has heard it more than once before─the major record labels are becoming as archaic as the dinosaurs and will soon be just as extinct. It’s a prediction that those who wish to appear “hip” and “in the know” have been reiterating for several years now. More than several years, actually. In fact, it has been nearly a decade since the Great Napster Fiasco of 2000 took place─an event which marked the beginning of the end for names like Warner, EMI, and Sony. It is simply too tempting for most people to use P2P (peer-to-peer) downloading services such as LimeWire or the plethora of BitTorrent tracker sites to get their favorite artists’ music for free rather than driving to the store and overpaying for the same music at the same level of quality.
Even the artists themselves are buying into the “death of the record label” talk. In 2007, British megastars Radiohead made news by going completely independent and offering their new album as a free download from their website─no record labels, no strings attached. Since then, other artists have followed suit, including Billy Corgan (of Smashing Pumpkins fame) and fellow Brits Coldplay. And when discussing his upcoming album, Rob Zombie recently stated “I don't think they're gonna make CDs anymore by this time next year… Everything in the industry that I've been hearing has basically been saying that, like, 'Oh, by the time you get to your next record we won't even press it up on a CD.’ I mean, it is almost becoming like you're not sure - how will people get music a year from now?"
Talk like this has to be extremely depressing for the workers remaining in the recording business, right? From the grossly overpaid CEOs down to the hard-working folks in marketing, technical support, and distribution, job security is a serious issue and thousands of people have already lost their jobs in this industry over the last few years. But what are the facts? Is the music industry really deserving of all the doom-and-gloom talk, or is there any hope at all for finding ways to make money off such an enormous consumer product?
The IFPI (International Federation of the Phonographic Industry) releases a report every year detailing all aspects of the music industry. The 2009 report (detailing the numbers from 2008), features a number of revealing statistics. First, the bad news. The IFPI (International Federation of the Phonographic Industry) estimates that 95% of all music downloading is done illegally, representing billions of dollars lost for the music industry. And total album sales (combined digital and physical) fell 25% from 2000 to 2006. In 2007 total music sales fell another 10%. Looks pretty bleak, huh? But wait, more recent news brings some vestiges of hope.
The IFPI’s 2008 and 2009 Digital Music Reports indicates that digital music sales rose 40% in 2007 and another 25% in 2008. Total music sales are tracked by Nielson SoundScan, and they do not release that information without a very costly subscription, but they reported that overall music sales grew in 2008 after falling 10% in 2007.
The key, according to the IFPI, is that “The music industry has transformed its business models, offering consumers an increasing range of new services with leading technology partners.” In plain English, the record labels have finally recognized what it is people want and have adapted their business tactics accordingly. The big game-changer seems to be mobile sales - now accounting for approximately half of total digital sales. As mobile devices grow more and more sophisticated, they have unwittingly become the saviors of the music industry.
But what of the good old-fashioned CD? Is Mr. Zombie’s prediction a justified one? RollingStone.com covered this topic extensively in an article entitled “The Record Industry’s Decline.” Authors Brian Hiatt and Evan Serpick report that “About 2,700 record stores have closed across the country since 2003,” implying that the cause is falling album sales. And the IFPI reported that, despite increasing digital music sales by 40% in 2007, total music sales still fell by 10%, indicating a dramatic drop in physical album sales─a trend that has been the norm for this entire decade. All numbers seem to strongly indicate that Rob Zombie is correct; CDs sold by record labels will soon be a memory from the past.
I believe, however, that the doomsayers will be surprised. The fact is, digital music downloading - both legal and otherwise─is mostly carried out because of it level of ease. One advocate of music piracy argues “A consumer may be willing to download the latest album from say Britney Spears for instance if it was free, but if asked to shell out $15 bucks I’m sure most would refuse.” This point is an excellent one, though it indicates a fact that the author may not have realized─most of the illegal music downloading that takes place is not conducted by true fans of that artist. In truth, how many popular music artists have ANY true fans? Sure, a small percentage of fans may truly believe in the music─they feel it, live it, and love it. But I suspect that most people listen to popular artists because that is what their friends, family, or peers listen to. It makes for good conversation, mutual appreciation, and ease of access and listening.
Furthermore, most popular artists are not geared towards making albums, but instead focus all of their efforts on creating a few hit singles and then fill in the rest of the album with tunes of lesser quality. As a result, these artists make themselves easy targets for users of P2P programs like LimeWire. All a “fan” has to do is download the handful of hit songs from their favorite artist and they can ignore all of the “filler” tunes that would come with the album.
For most underground artists, the process in drastically different. Genres like traditional folk, heavy metal, and classical all focus on creating an album as a whole, cohesive, and complete entity. This is especially vital in heavy metal, where a very common phenomenon is the “concept album,” or album that is composed of songs that work together to demonstrate a single concept or tell a single story. The concept album is a time-honored tradition of heavy metal and classic rock, dating back to ground-breaking albums like Pink Floyd’s The Wall and Queensryche’s Operation Mind Crime.
I believe that, because of the album’s sanctity and value over that of the single in certain underground genres, the physical album will NOT die. Perhaps in popular music the trend towards not pressing music to CDs will continue. But there will always be those of us who prefer to have the physical music, and hear the album the way the artists (in the true sense of the word) meant for us to hear them. As one fan said in response to Mr. Zombie’s comments “I still love buying a Cd and checking out the artwork while reading the lyrics, I really hope it doesn't die out completely I still enjoy it very much.”
In the same way that many new albums are still sold in vinyl, the CD will not go extinct any time soon. I may not be “hip” or “in the know” for saying so, but in 50 years when people are still buying physical versions of music, remember where you read it first.
